The weather pattern change in early April has yielded 50-100% of normal rainfall for most of the state the last 30 days. Most areas had 2-3.5 inches of rain with 3-4 inches being normal.
The far north has been the wettest. However, soils have been so wet from the last 6 months that even though we have had good drying, even light rains make the soil moisten up quickly.
It appears we will have a pause from the drier than average pattern for the short term of the next 1-2 weeks with the probability of 1-2 inches of rain ranging from 70% south to 90% north. As is the case anytime, isolated streaks will be higher and lower than this. It appears the far north and northwest and possibly the far south have the greatest chance of this heavy rain. The systems will cross the area every few days.
The western cornbelt out towards Iowa, Wisconsin, southern Minnesota and northwest Illinois have been much much wetter than here and are being impacted even more.
It appears the wettest areas will remain west of Ohio the next few weeks.
Research shows most of the time trend line adjusted corn crop yields are below average in La Nina years with a less chance for wheat and more likely average or above average yields on soybeans. We will have to see how this year lines up with research.
The data still supports a trend to drier than average for late May and June but it does looks like at least average rain the next 2 weeks with small areas of above average rainfall mainly in the north.
The weather computer models have a low confidence level so the verification of this wetter pattern the next 2 weeks is still not a guarantee.
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